Question

A and B are two independent witnesses (i.e., there is no collision between them) in a case. The probability that A will speak the truth is x and the probability that B will speak the truth is y. A and B agree in a certain statement. What is the probability that the statement is true? Select the correct answer from above options

Answer 1

A and B will agree on a certain statement if both speak the truth or both tell a lie. Now, let us define the events as follows: E1: A and B both speak the truth ⇒ P(E1) = xy E2: A and B both tell a lie ⇒ P(E2) = (1 – x) (1 – y) E: A and B agree on a certain statement. Clearly, P(E/E1) = P(E/E2) = 1 Now, we are required to find P(E1/E). P(E1/E) = \(\frac{P(E_1).P(E/E_1)}{P(E_1).P(E/E_1)+P(E_2).P(E/E_2)}\) = \(\frac{xy.1}{xy.1+(1-x)(1-y).1}\) = \(\frac{xy}{1-x-y+2xy}\)